It was 60 days in the past when Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while the Villa manager admonished him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. Back then, as Villa went six without a win, the question was if his performances were a symptom or the reason of Villa's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, however, the manager's outburst was entirely far more favourable. After the in-form star swept in his second strike to reinstate his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician discarded his coat, spread his arms and roared. Villa were on their way to a tenth straight victory , after failing to win any of their first six fixtures, now sit a mere three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Challengers?
This is a particularly tough question to resolve. Past precedent, the perceived status of Villa, argues against it. Additionally, they have not been entirely convincing this season, while the positive results have piled up.
As per statistical analysis, in only two games have Villa registered an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a side who have strung together ten consecutive victories, they seem strangely fragile – however currently the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach appears to be to trade blows with rivals and then rely on their star man to bail them out with a couple of clinical strikes. This was the case against Leeds, it transpired in London, and it happened when facing United.
His opener came from an exquisite effort, arced right inside the goal frame from a wide position. The follow-up goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of the opener as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, Manchester United had more efforts and more direct attempts. The team has secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge they will encounter as the season progresses. The forward, in all likelihood, will not continue to blasting his shots past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is a different scenario whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players might still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker could start finding the net regularly.
- The winger may rediscover the player he showed during his peak.
- The defensive duo will eventually regain fitness, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defence.
This could contain the seeds for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Aston Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt earlier this season, few could imagine the midfielder now would be leading a hunt for the title while looking like a vital player for the national team.
The current run must be cherished exactly since it appears so improbable. As the match-winner faced the Villa faithful at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he seemed to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. These runs of form are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
